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Blog Traffic Forecast Calculator

Forecast where your organic traffic lands over the next twelve months, based on how often you publish, how each post performs, and how fast older posts decay. Transparent formula, no email.

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Visits at month 6
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Visits at month 12
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Total visits over 12 mo
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Share from new posts

Nothing is stored and nothing is sent to a server. No email required.

What Is a Traffic Forecast

An organic traffic forecast projects future sessions from publishing volume, expected performance per post, and the ramp time each post needs to reach its ranking ceiling. It is a planning model, not a prediction.

Two things make most forecasts wrong. They assume every post ranks, and they assume traffic arrives the month a post goes live.

Neither is true. A realistic model applies a hit rate and a ramp curve.

How This Calculator Works

The formula: Ranking posts / mo = new posts x hit rate Ramp share (month m) = min(m / ramp months, 1) Traffic from a cohort = ranking posts x visits per post x ramp share New-post traffic (mo) = sum of every prior cohort at its own ramp share Existing traffic (mo) = current visits x (1 - decay) ^ month Total visits (mo) = existing traffic + new-post traffic

Ramp is applied linearly, which understates the first two months and overstates months three and four. Over a twelve-month view the difference is small.

Realistic Inputs by Site Age

Site stageVisits per post at maturityHit rateRamp months
New domain, under 12 months50 to 12030% to 50%10 to 14
Established, some authority150 to 40050% to 70%6 to 9
Strong authority in category400 to 1,20070% to 85%3 to 6

How to Beat the Forecast

Publish Into an Existing ClusterPosts added to a topic you already rank for reach maturity faster than posts starting a new one.
Refresh Alongside PublishingRecovering a decayed post costs less than earning a new ranking.
Raise the Hit Rate FirstBetter keyword selection moves this model more than publishing more posts.
Link New Posts From Strong PagesInternal links from ranking pages shorten the ramp noticeably.
Match the Format to the QueryPosts that answer the wrong query type never reach maturity at all.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. How accurate is a blog traffic forecast?

Directionally useful, not precise. Use it to compare publishing scenarios rather than to promise a number to your board.

2. What decay rate should I use?

One to two percent a month for a maintained blog, and three percent or more where nothing gets refreshed.

3. Why does my hit rate matter so much?

Because a post that never ranks contributes nothing. Halving the hit rate halves the forecast, whatever the publishing volume.

4. Should I count branded traffic in the current figure?

No. Filter branded queries out, because they grow with your marketing rather than with your blog.

5. How long before a new domain sees results?

Usually two to four months for the first rankings, and closer to twelve for meaningful volume.